Competitiveness of Egyptian grapes exports to the most important markets of the European Union

This study examines the competitiveness of the Egyptian grape exports to the most important markets of the European Union through (market share index, market penetration rate, the price index, geographical concentration index, and the composite index of competitiveness) during the period (2000-2017), study the external demand for grape exports to the most important EU markets. The standard estimation of the target level for grape exports to the major EU markets. The trend of the amount of Egyptian agricultural exports to the EU markets showed an increase of 8.7%, while the quantity, value and export price of grapes was shown to increase at an increasing rate of 10.9%, 14.3% and 9.2% during the average period (2000-2017.(
The results of the estimation of the external demand function for the export of grapes to the most important markets of the European countries showed a positive relationship between the quantity of Egyptian exports of grapes and the total local production of grapes. It was found that changing one unit in the quantity of local production of grapes leads to a change in the same direction for grape exports to the UK, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Belgium were about 0.321, 0.148, 0.158, 0.073, 0.056 tons respectively.
There is an inverse relationship between the quantity of Egyptian exports of grapes for most important European markets, and both the total domestic consumption of grapes, the average price of exporting grapes, it was found that the change of one unit in the amount of local consumption of grapes lead to a change in the opposite direction for grape exports to the UK, Netherlands, Italy, Germany, Belgium was about 0.263, 0.142, 0.082, 0.075, 0.052 tons respectively. One unit change in the export price of grapes lead to a change in the opposite direction for the amount of grape exports to the UK and Belgium was about 17.35, 2.908 tons respectively.
The results of standard estimation of the target level for grape exports to the major EU markets by using Nerlove's partial adjustment model, showed that the most important determinants of grape exports were local grape production and local consumption of grapes, it was found that a change of 1% in the quantity of local grape production leads to a change in the same direction for the Egyptian grape exports to the UK, Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Belgium reached about 16.23%, 11.96%, 19.49%, 24.23%, 14.35% respectively. While the 1% change in the local consumption of grapes leads to a change in the reverse direction for the Egyptian grape exports to the UK, Netherlands, Italy, Germany and Belgium reached about 3.35%, 5.94%, 2.39%, 10.16% respectively.
The results of the forecasting of the quantity of Egyptian grapes exports to the major European markets until 2023 indicate that they are expected to increase by about 39.8%, 17.5% and 59% in 2017 to the UK, Netherlands and Germany respectively, while they are will decline by about 82.9% and 78.7% for Italy and Belgium respectively.